Rejecting Trump’s ceasefire plan would be poor diplomacy
The US plan for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine is something Russia is willing to discuss, according to experts interviewed by Pravda.Ru. However, Moscow will, of course, put forward its own conditions.
Photo: flickr.com by Skharikov,
Ukrainian flag
Trump stated that “we have people heading to Russia right now” and that the US has “received some positive messages regarding a ceasefire,” The Guardian reports.
Commenting on the temporary truce proposal from the administration of US President Donald Trump, experts point out that the plan was rigid and drafted without considering the realities on the ground.
“We don’t see any plan except for a single statement in the form of a categorical demand and a number of unclear circumstances,” said political analyst Alexander Asafov, First Deputy Chairman of the Public Chamber of Russia’s Commission on Public Expertise of Legislative and Other Regulatory Acts, in an interview with Pravda.Ru.
According to him, the US and Ukrainian statements were made without taking into account what is actually happening “on the ground.” Asafov is highly skeptical of the plan but believes it will be discussed in Russia in certain groups “where the details of this proposal will be clarified.”
“The only option is to meet and discuss. As it stands, this proposal is unacceptable,” Asafov noted.
A similar view is held by Boris Borisov, a former Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, who also sees merit in discussing the plan.
“There is reason both to consider the plan and to reject it. As I understand, the Russian Security Council is currently holding consultations, and different opinions are being discussed,” he told Pravda.Ru.
In Borisov’s view, the Russian leadership is likely to accept the ceasefire proposal but will set additional conditions that Ukraine will find entirely unacceptable.
“Simply saying ‘No, we reject this’ is poor diplomacy. Good diplomacy is saying, ‘Oh, yes, of course, a peace plan, we are so happy, we welcome any peace plan, we fully support peace and a ceasefire, but there are a few issues that need to be resolved.'”
One such issue, according to political analysts, is the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces to the constitutional borders of the Russian Federation, which “Putin has spoken about”:
“In other words, you leave Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and we cease fire.”
As Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters today, Russia does not want to jump ahead in assessing the proposed ceasefire before receiving more information from the US.
According to a joint statement from Washington and Kyiv following the March 11 meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire on the condition that Russia also agrees to the measure.
The goal of the settlement should be “not a short-term truce, not just a pause for regrouping and rearming,” but rather “a long-term peace,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in January. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov ruled out freezing the conflict along the current front lines.
“We are not interested in a ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to rearm and be sent against our country once again. What we need is a long-term, sustainable peace based on addressing the root causes of the conflict,” Lavrov said during a parliamentary hearing.
Details
The Minsk agreements were a series of international agreements which sought to end the Donbas war fought between armed Russian separatist groups and Armed Forces of Ukraine, with Russian regular forces playing a central part. After a defeat at Ilovaisk at the end of August 2014, Russia forced Ukraine to sign the first Minsk Protocol, or the Minsk I. It was drafted by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, consisting of Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), with mediation by the leaders of France (François Hollande) and Germany (Angela Merkel) in the so-called Normandy Format. After extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, the agreement was signed on 5 September 2014 by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group and, without recognition of their status, by the then-leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR). This agreement followed multiple previous attempts to stop the fighting in the region and aimed to implement an immediate ceasefire.
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