June 3
The NHC has highlighted a non-tropical area of low pressure off the coast of the southeastern U.S. for potential development during the next two to three days. The low could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
Monitoring the potential for some Saharan dust to move into Southeast Texas by this weekend. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Over the past couple of days models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 2
Our quiet start to hurricane season looks to continue for at least another week, as the NHC is predicting no tropical development over the next seven days. Over the span of the next two to three weeks the National Hurricane Center is highlighting an area of potential development in the southern gulf and western Caribbean which could eventually produce a tropical cyclone, but it is not an immediate threat and for now it remains just an area we will watch closely.
Of greater interest to us here in Southeast Texas is the potential for some Saharan dust to move in by this weekend. That dusk can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Over the past couple of days models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 1
While the NHC is expecting an active hurricane season (more on that below), we are off to a quiet start on this first day of hurricane season. There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Basin, nor are any storms expected to develop in the next seven days.
May 29
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through the end of November.
After a record season for the Gulf Coast in 2024, which included Hurricane Beryl making landfall in southeast Texas, ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith has a preview of what to look out for this year.
Let’s start with the El Niño, or La Niña. This hurricane season is more than likely going to be an ENSO neutral year, or a “La Nada.” This means the Trade Winds over the Atlantic are in their usual position at normal strength. There’s no major influence on jet stream patterns or ocean temperatures like there would be during an El Niño or La Niña. The other top driver will be ocean temperatures, as it is every year. The warmer the water, the higher the likelihood for storms to develop and intensify.
Storm development can depend on the status of the West African Monsoon. That’s what sends clusters of thunderstorms to the Atlantic, which can then become a tropical system. What can limit that from happening is Saharan Dust, which usually occurs earlier in the season. So, when it comes to storms that could threaten southeast Texas, local weather patterns and those over the Caribbean can be the final factor. If the jet stream is over the Gulf, there’s higher wind shear that can weaken tropical systems.
NOAA’s 2025 hurricane prediction is above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. The outlook for 2025 predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
Researchers with Colorado State University are calling for above normal conditions, calling for 17 tropical storms, with nine of those becoming hurricanes, and four potential major hurricanes.
Another way to preview an upcoming hurricane season is through analog years. These are past years which, based on similar atmospheric conditions, could be comparable to what this season might look like. Dr. Phil Klotzbach with Colorado State University told ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith that these years are 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017.
Some of these years will stand out to Texans, and for good reason: 2008 for Hurricane Ike and 2017 for Harvey. However, consider 2006 and 1999, which were very different seasons for the Texas coast. 2006 was a slightly below normal year in terms of the number of storms, and no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. Tropical storms did hit Florida that year. 2011 was active for the Atlantic and Bay of Campeche, but not necessarily the Gulf.
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