A century of straw polls at the iconic Harry’s Bar in Paris have accurately called almost every U.S. election. This November was no different. The tallies displayed on the bar’s window on a chilly Wednesday morning were another reminder of Donald Trump’s decisive victory — with uncertain consequences for France and Europe.
Even as some French celebrate the former president’s comeback to the White House, others fear its repercussions and wonder whether their country will follow the same rightward tilt in its own 2027 presidential elections.
“I guess we’re disappointed but unfortunately not surprised,” said freelance producer and Paris resident Charlotte Danglegan. “The fascist powers are taking more and more importance, and it’s the same case in France.”
Not everyone sees it that way. On social media platform X, right-wing French politician Eric Ciotti saluted Trump’s victory as “a magnificent victory against a system, a hope for peace and a defeat for wokists.”
David Gil, a member of the far-right National Rally Party is also pleased.
“For us, it’s good news,” he said. “But it’s a bit early to see what it means for France.”
French President Emmanuel Macron was an early bird in congratulating Trump — sending his wishes to work “for more peace and prosperity,” before the Republican’s win was officially confirmed.
But Macron followed that message with another on X, declaring he and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wanted to work “for a Europe more united, stronger, more sovereign in this new context.”
French government officials echoed similar themes, reflecting Macron’s longstanding push for beefing up Europe’s military and other defenses.
“We need to find ways to work on our common interests, but fundamentally, the answer lies with us,” European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad told France Inter radio.
Europeans, he said, “can’t accept that their security will be decided without them, that tomorrow a capitulation will be imposed on Ukrainians without them, without the Europeans.”
Cooling relations
Macron struck up initially cordial relations with Trump during his first term in office, marked by the U.S. president’s visit to Paris in 2017 during Bastille Day celebrations. But ties cooled over differences on trade, climate change and Iran. Now, there are other areas of disagreement, including the future of Ukraine and support for NATO.
“It’s really time for us to wake up and do something,” said Jean-Yves Camus, an analyst at the Jean Jaures Foundation in Paris. “Because if we do not have the military capacity to weigh in on Ukraine and the Middle East, then we are dependent on what Washington will do.”
For their part, French businesses are worried about the potential impact of Trump’s promised tariffs on imports, which could affect industries such as beverages and aeronautics. Still, observers say, France is less exposed to a potential trade war than other countries, including neighboring Germany.
Walking near Harry’s Bar, phone salesman Cameron Orilia said he had not been closely following the U.S. presidential campaign.
“I hope things will work out for business” during Trump’s term, he said, “that customs will work out. I’m just looking at the economic side of the politics.”
Wake-up call?
But other Paris residents are worried about the political side.
“I feel a bit scared,” said Lucy Bone, a Briton who has lived in Paris for 25 years. “I’m thinking [about] what happened to all our democracies? We are now going to be in a world that’s driven by dictators.”
As with Americans, the French are worried about high prices and immigration — themes that catapulted Trump to victory. The hard-right National Rally emerged on top of both of France’s European and parliamentary elections this year. Today it holds the most seats of any party in the lower house — although not the majority.
Some believe Trump’s election may set a precedent for National Rally leader Marine Le Pen to do the same in 2027. Still, Le Pen has been cautious in reacting to another four years under Trump, who remains highly controversial in France.
“The only thing I think about is France’s interest and Europe’s interest,” she told reporters Wednesday. Under a Trump presidency that defends U.S. interests, “Europe has got to wake up” and do the same.
“Le Pen has been very, very strong in saying that National Rally members of parliament should not support President Trump, should not take sides in this election,” Camus said, “for fear that the bad image of President Trump would damage her own chance of becoming president.”
