While there may be cracks in Conservative Party support in Saskatoon, political experts aren’t convinced the Liberal Party will pick up enough votes to break through the blue stronghold.
The Conservative Party is likely to win all three Saskatoon seats, said Daniel Westlake, University of Saskatchewan assistant professor of political studies.
“For the Conservatives to lose Saskatoon South would be shocking,” Westlake said.
“I think the Conservatives are probably the favourites in Saskatoon-West and Saskatoon-University, but they’re not outside the realm of possibility for other parties … But we’re talking about scenarios on the edges. We’re not talking about most likely scenarios here.”
The Conservative Party is likely to take all three Saskatoon seats, according to the 338Canada project, an election projection model based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is scheduled to appear at a rally in Saskatoon tonight, making him the third party leader to visit the city this campaign. Two weeks ago, Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh held campaign events in Saskatoon on the same day.
The NDP vote would have to collapse and move to the Liberals in Saskatoon West and Saskatoon University for Conservatives to lose, Westlake said.
“Even in a riding like Saskatoon University, the past couple of elections, the Conservatives not only won, they had a larger share of the vote in the Liberals and the NDP combined,” Westlake said.
“A lot of votes moving to Liberals might not have the same effect that it might have in suburban Toronto because the Conservatives already have a quite significant lead.”
Conservative incumbents are running in all three ridings. The newly created Saskatoon South electoral district follows similar boundaries in the city as its predecessor Saskatoon-Grasswood, but does not include rural parts of its previous iteration.
In the 2021 election in Saskatoon West, Conservatives won 45.4 per cent of the vote, compared to 39.3 for the NDP and 8.2 per cent for the Liberals. Conservatives won 48 per cent of the vote in Saskatoon University last election, compared to 35.4 per cent for the NDP and 10.8 per cent for the Liberals.
Elections Canada has the full list of candidates for each Saskatoon constituency.
A recent survey of Saskatchewan voters found widespread support for Conservatives with rising support for the Liberals. When asked who they would vote for if an election was held today, 38 per cent of people polled said they’d vote for the Conservatives, while 25 per cent said they’d vote for the Liberals.
Eleven per cent of respondents said they’d vote NDP and 20 per cent were undecided when the poll was conducted April 5 to April 10.
Those numbers are even closer in Saskatoon, where 43 per cent of decided voters support the Conservatives, compared to 38 per cent supporting the Liberals.
Gwaynchang Poe, 23, is one of the undecided voters in Saskatoon West. He said crime and public safety are his top election issues.
“I just want somebody that just cares about the people,” Poe said. “The neighborhood is changing very fast, but it’s changing the way where [crime] is out of control. It needs to be controlled where everybody can feel safe.”
In Saskatoon-University, Darlene Montgomery is worried about cost of living and housing affordability. She said a lot of her friends and family are concerned too.
“When I was a younger person there was opportunity to buy a house, but people can’t do that now,” Montgomery said. “My own daughter in fact can’t do that, and she makes a lot of money, but it’s almost impossible for her to buy a house now.”
Saskatoon Morning7:57Will strategic voting change the politcal map for some Saskatoon ridings?
Guest host Theresa Kliem talks with Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor who teaches political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, on how strategic voting might affect the outcome in some Saskatoon ridings in the federal election.
Canada’s trade war with the U.S. likely boosted Liberal support across the country and in Saskatoon, said Éric Grenier, who runs CBC’s election poll tracker and writes about elections at TheWrit.ca.
“We’ve seen throughout Canada that the threats of tariff of comments about Canada’s sovereignty from Donald Trump has galvanized Liberal support, particularly for Mark Carney at a personal level,” Grenier said.
“So I do think this has been one of the driving factors that has pushed the Liberals forward.”
He’s also cautious about predicting a Liberal win in any Saskatoon riding.
“I think that with these kinds of numbers, it just suggests it’s very close and could be quite competitive, but you would still say that the Conservatives are the favourites,” Grenier said.
Elections Canada released provincial breakdowns of advanced poll numbers. Over four days of advanced voting, Saskatchewan voters cast 206,754 ballots, compared to 183,898 in the 2021 federal election.
