Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada won a new term on Monday night, the national broadcaster CBC/Radio Canada projected, a remarkable turnaround for his Liberal Party, owed in large part to President Trump’s aggressive stance toward the country.
After midnight Eastern time, it was still unclear whether the Liberal Party would secure a majority of seats in the House of Commons or have to form a minority government. Preliminary results were likely to be available overnight Tuesday. A minority government would require support from other parties to pass legislation and would be weaker and less stable than a majority.
But the voters’ decision sealed a stunning reversal for the Liberal Party that just months ago seemed all but certain to lose to the Conservative Party, led by the career politician Pierre Poilievre. Mr. Carney has been prime minister since March, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down.
Mr. Poilievre conceded early Tuesday morning but said that he would remain as party leader. The Conservative caucus has the power to remove him from the post, which it did to the party’s two previous leaders after it failed to form the government.
The election has been remarkable in many ways, with candidates and many voters describing it as the most important vote in their lifetimes.
It has been dominated by Mr. Trump and his relentless focus on Canada, America’s closest ally and trading partner. Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, pushing the country toward a recession, and repeatedly threatened to annex it as the 51st state. Even as Canadians were heading to the polls on Monday morning, he repeated that desire, arguing on social media that it would bring economic and military benefits.
Mr. Carney, 60, a seasoned economist and policymaker who promoted himself as the anti-Trump candidate and centered his campaign on dealing with the United States, ultimately benefited from the American president’s actions.
Mr. Poilievre, 45, and the Conservatives had been dominating polls for years, building a platform against the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau around the argument that they had dragged Canada into prolonged economic malaise.
But they watched their double-digit lead rapidly evaporate after Mr. Trump’s aggressiveness toward Canada and Mr. Trudeau’s resignation.
Canadians heading to the polls were preoccupied both with the country’s relationship with its neighbor to the south and with the state of the economy at home. Affordability worries, primarily over housing, were top of mind, opinion surveys conducted before the election showed.
But Canada’s choice on Monday also came as a kind of referendum against Mr. Trump and the way he has been treating America’s allies and its trading partners.
It’s the second major international election since Mr. Trump came to power, after Germany, and Canada’s handling of the rupture in the relationship with the United States is being closely watched around the world.
The election also highlighted that Mr. Trump’s brand of conservative politics can turn toxic for conservatives elsewhere if they are seen as being too aligned with his ideological and rhetorical style. Mr. Poilievre, who railed against “radical woke ideology,” pledged to defund Canada’s national broadcaster and said he would cut foreign aid, seemed to have lost centrist voters, pre-election polls suggested.
For Mr. Carney, Monday’s victory marked an astonishing moment in his rapid rise in Canada’s political establishment since entering the race to replace Mr. Trudeau in January.
A political novice but policy-making veteran, Mr. Carney conveyed a measured, serious tone and defiance toward Mr. Trump’s aggressive overtures, helping to sway voters who had been contemplating supporting the Conservatives, according to polls and some individual voters. And his politics as a pragmatist and a centrist seemed to better align with Canada’s mood after a decade of Mr. Trudeau’s progressive agenda.
There was ample evidence on Monday that Mr. Carney’s personality and background had boosted the Liberals. He is a Harvard- and Oxford-educated economist who served as governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 global financial crisis and the Bank of England during Brexit. He later went on to serve on corporate boards and became a leading voice on climate-conscious investment.
Mr. Poilievre and other critics tried to frame Mr. Carney as an out-of-touch elitist who had spent much of his adult life away from Canada and knew little about the country or its people.
They also attacked Mr. Carney for his experience working in China, which has meddled in Canada’s elections, and some of his policy proposals that they said would burden Canada’s public finances and make it harder for the country’s economy to thrive.
Despite Monday’s victory, the road ahead for Mr. Carney and his new government will be hard. For starters, he will need to engage with Mr. Trump and his unpredictable attitude toward Canada and discuss fraught issues, including trade and security.
And he will need to show voters that his economic policy credentials can truly be put to use to improve Canada’s slow economic growth and persistently high unemployment.
