Troy Renck: Joe Burrow belongs to the past. He has Joe Montana’s demeanor and a fashion sense from Paris. Burrow plays at a time when Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson continue jockeying for the MVP award, but if this prize was based solely on work through the air, neither would pass Burrow. Burrow leads the NFL in completions (384), passing yards (4,229) and touchdowns (39). Buckle up, Broncos. With a win needed to clinch a playoff berth, all the Broncos have to do is upset the Bengals in Cincinnati as they are conjuring images of the Rams’ Greatest Show on Turf. So, Sean, this game sets up as a shootout, which raises the question: Whose play is more important for the Broncos to win — quarterback Bo Nix or cornerback Riley Moss?
Sean Keeler: For me, it’s Moss, whose absence has been so loud (and so felt) these last three weeks that he’s making a late-season run for team MVP. Like KU and the Buffs, this is a killer road matchup because the opponent’s strengths (Chase, Higgins, Gesicki) are designed to absolutely punish your weak spots The Bengals are averaging 29 points per game at home. Take away a weird 16-10 home loss to the bad Pats in Week 1, and that jumps up to 32 points per week along the Ohio River. Nix doesn’t have to be perfect. But he’s gotta be better, and more efficient, than he was late in Los Angeles.
Renck: The temptation is to zero in on Moss. There is no denying the Broncos miss him. They are playing less man coverage and using less exotic pressure, so while they have posted five interceptions during his three-game absence, they have allowed six touchdowns. Moss’ return would free Patrick Surtain II to follow Ja’Marr Chase, leaving the former Iowa star to cover Tee Higgins. Chase is posting video game numbers over the last seven games: 53 catches, 793 yards and nine touchdowns. The Broncos cannot let Chase beat them. It’s only possible to stop him if Moss, in his return from a knee injury, can neutralize Higgins, who has 29 catches for 386 yards and four touchdowns over the last five games.
Keeler: How do you neutralize an elite passing game on the road? Keep Cincy Joe on his back or keep him on the sideline. The Broncos had the right idea to start at SoFi, then gave it up. Which is why Moss is so critical — on the road, the orange and blue go as Vance Joseph’s defense goes. At Tampa? Seven sacks. At Kansas City, a win 99.99% of the time? Four sacks. A healthy Moss lets VJ have some fun again. Over the five road games in which Denver’s racked up for sacks or more, they’re 4-1. Three sacks or fewer away from home? 0-3.
Renck: While the Broncos need Moss, he is not more important than Nix. Moss can work in conjunction with the pass rush to create a turnover — Burrow has thrown for three touchdowns in seven straight games, but he has also lost four fumbles and fired five interceptions. But those takeaways will mean little if Nix cannot shred a porous Cincinnati defense. The Bengals hold a 7-8 record because they cannot stop anybody, even as their offense runs on nitromethane. Nix has to be prepared to score 30 points to win. That means establishing the run with Audric Estime and not missing on splash plays to Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. Not connecting with Mims on a deep ball against the Chargers — yes, it should have been interference — showed how a single moment can be the difference against a prolific opponent. The Broncos need Moss back. But to upset the Bengals, they need Nix at his best.
Keeler: They do, but it’s hard to see Nix winning a shootout in the Queen City, on the road, against a QB/WR combo with playoff scars facing playoff stakes. He’ll get there, but even as far as he’s come, that’s a big ask for a rookie in Week 17. The Broncos can win this game if they’re late-September, Weeks 3-4 Broncos. If they lead with the defensive front, getting sacks, forcing bad throws and doing the heavy lifting — which is why it’s so key to have Moss pulling on his end of the rope again.
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